Scientists of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine performed a simulation of the transfer of radioactive particles during a hypothetical accident at the Zaporizhzhya NPP (ZANP) under meteorological conditions as of August 15-18, 2022.
The results of modeling the atmospheric transport and dispersion of radioactive aerosols Cs-137 were obtained using the predictive meteorological model WRF ARW v4.3 and the atmospheric dispersion modeling complex CALMET-CALPUFF v6.
The WRF forecast of meteorological conditions was calculated on the basis of GFS global forecast data with a spatial resolution of 0.5o and a time resolution of 3 hours. Radioactive emissions are given in the form of two point sources at heights of 200 and 500 m above the earth’s surface with a total stationary power of 1 Bq/s (0.5 Bq/s for each of the sources). For radioactive particles, the characteristics of their size distribution were used: average diameter 1 μm, standard deviation 2 μm.
Due to the impossibility of determining the exact characteristics of the source of emissions in the event of a hypothetical accident at the ZNPP, the results of numerical modeling should be interpreted only qualitatively and relatively.
According to the results of the calculations, during August 15-18, 2022, the highest concentrations of radioactive particles can be observed within the territory of Ukraine, especially in the near zone from the emission source, with a radius of 50-100 km. Moreover, in almost all directions relative to ZNPP.
Significant concentrations of radionuclides can reach the city of Kyiv. Partially radioactive impurities may also be removed to the territory of neighboring states (the eastern part of Belarus, Poland, the Baltic States). At the end of the simulated period, the main direction of radionuclide transport is east, as a result of which significant concentrations of radioactive particles can be observed over the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
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